Thinking About Iraq Again
Some of you may remember this post I made about Iraq a while back. I can't say my views have changed much since then, but that won't stop me from briefly revisiting them.
Here's the worst case scenario I worried about pre-invasion due to the little I was hearing about post-invasion planning:
1. We invade and win.
2. Due to not having enough troops on the ground, we are not able to prevent an insurgency from developing.
3. Because we do not prevent an insurgency from developing, many people die and the U.S. public loses confidence in the war.
4. Because the war is unpopular, we pull out early. This leads to civil war or at least civil disorganization.
5. Eventually some sort of dictator comes into being, stabilizing the country, but causing the U.S. to wonder whether it should go in a second time.
Though I don't find it particularly comforting, I've been a little bit relieved to find that we are only at number 3 (even though the current situation edges toward 4) in my worst case scenario.
"Well," I've said to myself, "at least we haven't had serious talk about putting in a dictator to stabilize the country."
You can then imagine my reaction to this NPR story about coup rumors in Iraq. The good news is that a coup isn't likely. The bad news is that some Iraqis appear to be thinking that it wouldn't be an entirely bad thing.
In the past I've written that the solution to insurgency is putting more people on the ground. I still think this. The trouble is that the chances of that are roughly zero. If we wanted to raise the necessary troops from our own country, we'd need to draft people. Raising troops from other countries seems unlikely.
Bearing that in mind, it seems that the question then becomes how to leave responsibly. As in, how do we leave while giving Iraq the best chance to avoid civil war and dictatorship? Personally, I'd be in favor of a slow withdrawal while simultaneously training up Iraqi troops. The trouble is that that seems to be our current policy and my impression is that it's not working very well.
Every so often I've heard people who defend the war say something along the lines of, "Leaving Iraq alone would have left Saddam Hussein in charge. Removing him is an improvement no matter what else happens."
While I agree that removing Saddam Hussein from power is potentially a good thing, I'm inclined to think that a process of removal that turns Iraq into a chaotic mess (or creates a new dictator) is just as bad or worse.